Population Association of Japan
53rd Annual Meeting Program
[* Indicates translations given tentatively by the Program Committee chair]
Friday, June 1,

1.  Common Discussion Theme Session A: Replacement Migration: Can It Be a Solution to Population Decline and Aging?
(Shinko Hall S210)

Organizer & Chair: Shigemi Kono (Reitaku University)
Discussants: Shunichi Inoue (Nihon University)Makoto Atoh (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(1) Replacemant
Migration and Its ImplicationsEMachiko Yanagishita  (Josai International University)

(2) The
Trend and Policy of Recent Immigration to JapanEYasuko Hayase (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)

(3) Welcome
or Unwelcome: International Migration in Western CountriesEYoshio Yoshida (Asahi University)

(4) Relationship of International Migration to Fertility Decline and Population Aging*ETomomi Otsuka (Nihon University)

2.  Theme Session (1): Formal Demography of Fertility Decline
(Shinko Hall S206)j

Organizer & Chair: Hisashi Inaba (University of Tokyo)

(1) Kinship Resources in Declining PopulationEToru Suzuki (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(2) Effects of Age at Marriage on Fertility: A Simulation Analysis Using Extended Age Dependent ModelEJun Hagihara (University of Tokyo)

(3) Cohort Changes in First Marriage Process and Fertility Decline in JapanERyuichi Kaneko (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(4) Decomposing the Decline in Total Fertility Rate by Cohort VariablesEKiyosi Hirosima (Shimane University)

(5) Fertility Developments and their Demographic Factors in the Republic of GermanyEToshihiko Hara (Hokkaido Tokai University)

3.  Regular Session 1 (Part 1)@@@@(Shinko Hall S209)@

Chair: Hidehiko Hama (Seijo University)

(1) Effects of Government Policy on Internal Migration in Peninsular Malaysia: A Comparison between Malays and Non-MalaysEYoshimi Chitose (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(2) Lifetime Migration in Japan: Using Data of the Fourth Migration SurveyETakashi Inoue (Aoyama Gakuin University)

(3) The Change of the Reasons for Migration: Gifu PrefectureEKaoru Ito (Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University)

4.  Regular Session 1 (Part 2) (Shinko Hall S209)@@@@@

Chair: Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University)

(4) Distribution and Structure of Japanese Population by Land FormsEAtsushi Otomo (Japan Women's University)ETadashi Sasagawa (Pasco Co. Ltd.)ESatoshi Sumida (Statistical Information Institute for Consulting and Analysis)@

(5) Multiple Difference Coefficient of Population and Population Change RateESadahiko Sakai (Aichi Shukutoku University)

(6) An Analysis of Regional Fertility Changes since 1920 Using Population Census DataEShinichi Takahashi (Kobe University)

(7) An Analysis of Regional Population Distribution since 1920 Using Population CensusESatoshi Nakagawa (Kobe University)

5. Regular Session 2 (Part 1)(Shinko Hall S204)

Chair: Takeshi Hara (Josai University)

(1) The Theory of Demographic Transition and Japanese ExperienceEFutoshi Konoshita (Aichi Konan College)

(2) City 'Ari-jigoku' Hypothesis and Population Movement*EMiyuki Takahashi (Hitotsubashi University)

(3) Divorce in Pre-industrial JapanESatomi Kurosu (Reitaku University)

6. Regular Session 2 (Part 2)(Shinko Hall S204)

Chair: Motofumi Masaki (Showa University)

(4) A Bayesian Analysis on Historical Charge of the Determinant of Unmet Need for Contraception in BangladashESyeda Sbahanara Hug (The Graduates University for Advanced Studies)EMakio Ishiguro (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)ETakashi Nakamura (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

(5) Estimation of Unintended PregnancyEMiho Iwasawa (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(6) Income Differences among the Aged PersonsEKatsuhisa Kojima (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

Friday, June 1, 12:30pm-1:30pm (Jiyugaoka Hall 3rd Floor)PAJ Board of Directors' Meeting

Friday, June 1, 1:30pm-2:00pm (Jiyugaoka Hall 4th Floor)                   Presidential Address                The Demography of AgingHaruo Sagaza (Waseda University)

Friday, June 1, 2:00pm-3:00pm (Jiyugaoka Hall 4th Floor)Welcome Speech from the Host Organization & General Membership Meeting

Friday, June 1, 3:00pm-6:00pm (Jiyugaoka Hall 4th Floor)

7.  Symposium: Population Problems in Japan in the 21st Century: Positive and Negative Aspects of Fertility Decline & Population Aging

Organizer: Noriko Tsuya (Keio University)
Chair: Motosuke Sugino (Kyushu Kyoritsu University)
Discussants: Hiroshi Ohbuchi (Chuo University)Shigemi Kono (Reitaku University)

(1) Economic Growth and Labor MarketEHisakazu Kato (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(2) Social Security and Fairness between GenerationsEHiroyuki Kanekiyo (Meiji University)

(3) Change in Demographics and Its Effect on Family Life Cycle EShigesato Takahashi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(4) Urban Reorganization in Kyushu: The Disparity in Population Growth among CitiesENaoto Takaki (Kyushu Economic Research Center)

Saturday, June 2,


8.  Common Discussion Theme Session B: Population in Kyushu: Past Trends, Current Situations & Future Prospects(Shinko Hall S210)

Organizer: Tai'ichiro Takemoto (Nagasaki University)
Chair: Takao Shigematsu (Fukuoka University)

Discussants: Masaki Moriyama (Fukuoka University)Hirofumi Higashi (National Institute of Fitness & Sports in Kanoya)

(1) Household Structure in Yakushima, 1726ETsunetoshi Mizoguchi (Nagoya University)

(2) Demographical Characteristics of  Medical Expenditures in KyushuEShinya Matsuda  (University of Occupational and Environmental Hearth)

(3) Subjects on the Population of Kyushu from the Family Resource ManagementEReiko Akahoshi  (Saga University)

(4) A Study of Industrial Structure and Employed Trend in the Kyushu Region by an Input-output Analysis of Inter-industry RelationshipsEMotosuke Sugino (Kyushu Kyoritsu University)

9.  Theme Session (3): Population Policy in Contemporary Society: Concepts, Legitimacy and Evaluation(Shinko Hall S206)

Organizer & Chair: Ryuzaburo Sato (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Discussant: Hiroshi Ohbuchi (Chuo University)

(1) Today's Population Policies: On the Framework of ResearchERyuzaburo Sato (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(2) Social Choice and Individual Human Rights in Population PoliciesEHiroki Nogami (Insitute of Developing Economies, JETRO)

(3) A Review of the Research on Below-replacement Fertility in Japan: From the Viewpoint of Policy AssessmentENoriko Shiraishi (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)ERyuzaburo Sato (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(4) Anti-Declining Birth Rate Countermeasure and Infertility Treatment: The Influence of Population Policy on IndividualEYukari Senba (Waseda University)

10.  Regular Session 3 (Part 1)(Shinko Hall S209)

Chair: Tomoko Furugori (Chuo University)

(1) Fertility Transition and Economic Development in Japan: 1920-40ERie Moriizumi (Chuo University)

(2) An Economic Analysis of Low Fertility: The Case of Postwar Japan*EKazue Amachi (Chuo University)

(3) Fertility in Japan: An Analysis Using Data for Infants' MothersEHiroyuki Imai (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(4) A Quantitative Analysis of Endogenous Target Fertility in Sri LankaEKeiichiro Matsushita (Kansai University)

11.  Regular Session 3 (Part 2)(Shinko Hall S209)@

Chair: Hitoshi Morioka (Komazawa University)

(5) Public Opinion of the Cause of Fertility DeclineEHiromichi Sakai (Saitama Prefectural University)

(6) Age Patterns of Fertility in Asian Countries*EW. Win* (Chuo University)

(7) An Analysis of Fertility Patterns by Socioeconomic Characteristics*EYoshikazu Watanabe (International University of Health and Welfare)

12.  Regular Session 4 (Part 1)(Shinko Hall S204)

Chair: Yoichi Okazaki (Nihon University)

(1) Care of the Elderly and Women's Labour Force Force Participation in JapanENaohiro Ogawa (Nihon University)ERikiya Matsukura  (Nihon University)

(2) Labour Force Population and the Future Change of Support BurdenEAkiko Tsuji (Waseda University)

(3) Who Supports an Elder's Life?: A Note on Public-Private Roles against the Uncertainty of EldersEKeita Suga (Keio University)

(4) Demand and Supply of Human Resources regarding Health and Medical Care and Welfare in Aging SocietyEKaori Imai (University of Occupational and Environmental Health)ETeiko Kakuta (Kokurakita Ward Office)

13.  Regular Session 4 (Part 2)(Shinko Hall S204)

Chair: Terukazu Suruga (Osaka Furitsu University)

(5) The Advent of Goldcolor Exercised Leadership in Information-oriented Societies and Internationalization SocietiesETakashi Annoura (Shoin University)

(6) Regional Rifferentials in Indian LabourEYuiko Nishikawa (Josai University)

Saturday, June 2, 1:30pm-5:00pm

14.   Theme Session (2): Is There a Future in Teaching Demography?: Current Situations and Future Prospects(Shinko Hall S210)

Organizer: Naohiro Ogawa (Nihon University)
Chair: Kiyosi Hirosima (Shimane University)
Discussant: Haruo Sagaza (Waseda University)

(1) An Instance of Demographic Education:  Lecture on Substantive Demography and Seminar on Formal DemographyEKohei Wada (Chuo University )

(2) What Do Students Expect to Get from Lecture on Population Studies?EMachiko Watanabe (Meikai University)

(3) Population Problems in Japanese High School EducationEKiyoshi Hamano (Kyoto Gakuen University)

(4) Comparisons between Japan and the United States in Population Teaching and TrainingE Shigemi Kono (Reitaku University)

(5) How to Develop Demographical EducationEAtsushi Otomo (Japan Women's University)

15.  Regular Session 5 (Part 1)(Shinko Hall S209)

Chair: Akira Ishikawa (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(1) Search Process of Never Married Japanese for Potential SpousesEChizu Yoshida (Kanto Gakuin University)

(2) The Analysis of the Marriage by the Life Table Form TechniqueEMotomi Beppu (Reitaku University)

(3) Conversion of Period Data into Cohort Data: Marriage and Divorce RatesEShunichi Inoue (Nihon University)

(4) An Analysis of Divorce in JapanEShinji Anzo (Meiji University)

16.  Regular Session 5 (Part 2)(Shinko Hall S209)

Chair: Saori Kamano (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(5) Child Care Needs and Desired Fertility: The Case of the City of YokohamaENoriko Tsuya  (Keio University)

(6) Factors of Continuation of Employment among Regularly Employed Women at Reproductive Ages*ESachiko Senba (Dokkyo University)

17.  Regular Session 6 (Part 1)(Shinko Hall S206)

Chair: Koji Esaki (Fukuoka University)

(1) New Mortality Model Considering Infectious DiseasesEMinato Nakazawa (The University of Tokyo)

(2) A Generalized Rogers' Model for Regional Population Forecast under Incomplete Data from Different SourcesEYasufumi Igarashi (Fukuoka University)ESaburo Saito (Fukuoka University)ENaoto Yamaguchi (Niigata University of International and Information Studies)

(3) Multiregional Population Forecasts Using the Random Scenario Method in JapanEZenji Nanjo (Tohoku Gakuin University)EKazuhiko Yoshinaga (Fukuoka University)

(4) Consistency of Projected Population Data by Shi, Ku, Machi, and MuraETomoko Tamura (Statistical Information Institute for Consulting and Analysis)

18.  Regular Session 6 (Part 2)(Shinko Hall S206)

Chair: Hachiro Nishioka (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(5) Islam and MigrationEHiroshi Kojima (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

(6) Urbanization in Islamic SocietiesEHirofumi Tanada (Waseda University)

(7) Population Trends in Arab Countries*EReiko Hayase (Lintz Corporation)

19.  Regular Session 7 (Part 1)

Chair: Yoshikuni Ishi (Josai University)

(1) On the Estimation of International Labour MigrationETomomi Otsuka (Nihon University)

(2) On the Phenomenon of Fertility and Mortality Decline with Economic DevelopmentEHitoshi Hayashi (Tokai University)

(3) Fertility, Human Capital Types and Bargaining in Labor Markets
EKeisuke Sasaki (Toyo University)

(4) Population Growth and Economic Development: Comparison among Japan, Taiwan, China and ThailandEMitoshi Yamaguchi (Kobe University)

20.  Regular Session 7 (Part 2)

Chair: Shozo Akazawa (Tohoku Gakuin University)

(5) On
Population from Bible: Jubilee and TodayEKenji Utsumi (University of Aizu Junior College Division)

(6) The Influence of Malthus upon Darwin and Progress after ItEToshiaki Yokoyama (Toho University)

(7) Toward Non-Western Demographic Transition: Van de Kaa and J. C. CaldwellEToshio Kuroda (JOICFP)

Copyright (C)@{lwLψ, 2000-. All Rights Reserved.
First drafted August 30, 2000
Last revised January 24, 2001